Share your thoughts...
Thanks for the work of compiling the list.
Suggestion for next update. I would like to see a prediction of the first biological human to become 100% non-biological through either upgrades to their bodies or through permanent transfer of their entire intelligence from their body to a host system.
2010:
This web site will no longer be in service.
Sorry to burst your bubble but technology's a dead end. At least in it's current form.
Industrial civilisation is unlikely to last 10 years let alone 100 years for some very simple reasons.
1 Energy and resource depletion. Looks like peak oil was last November see http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ http://dieoff.org http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php
2 Climate change with a strong possibility that we've exceeded tipping point to runaway climate change and there's no knowing where the new strange attractor will centre the system
3 Financial and economic collapse http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm http://financialsense.com our economy can only function in a condition of permanent growth and that is impossible in a finite system as we're all just about to find out.
4 Ecosystem collapse (See assorted sites linked to from the above sites) We can't continue to exist in our current numbers with degraded ecosystems. There will be a dieoff probably in the region of 90% of our numbers in the next few decades.
5 Resource wars (Last man standing theory) What the Western governments are currently doing to try and maintain the status quo for as long as possible. It's doomed to fail.
The list goes on it's a converging series of linked man made catastrophies created by the structures of empire, greed and hierarchy.
Also see http://energybulletin.net and http://theoildrum.com
You're obviously a bright young man you should focus your attention on something a bit more realistic like trying to help push for a steady state economy and work out how you and your community is going to weather the storm (The collapse has started by the way. It's just happening slowly for now). Wait till oil production starts declining at greater than 8% per year, as it will very soon, and we'll see how fast it falls then... No set of technologies will prevent it. As Eintein was reputed to have said "You can't solve a problem with the same sort of thinking that created it."
Time to wake up.
Best regards,
A lot of these predictions are not very likely to happen. Esspecially the prediction from Kurzweil about AI. He believes that brains work like computers or at least brain functions can be simulated with computers. This is based on the mathematical concept of neurons as big pattern processors, which can be described by a mathematical model. The problem is that the model is a (over)simplified version of human brain cells and that a lot of the brain processes is not understood and cannot be described or explained using present models. Also the brain cells work not on any numerical model of descrete values. Its more like a moog synthesiser. Therefore I do not believe that his AI achieves this and that concept will come true.
The next thing is food production and certain nano technologies. All of them claim to be more resource efficient, but in real they need more energy than
any classical or natural biological process. Therefore there not applicable for future needs.
Wake up we have an resource problem (energy, copper, plastics to name just a few).
Some things are really fascinating and others a little scary.
I took some of them and made a video. It's on YOuTube now. Hope you'll like it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a...h?
v=a7aOHpvdY9Q
i don't feel very comfortable in english so my question is: Is there any version of all this predictions in german language available?
if yes, pleas inform me and post it!
thanks
well what about second life? i think the matrix and simps will be a combination in second life
Mr. Djemal
I strongly disagree with each of your assertions. Would you care to place a small wager? Since you say that "industrial civilization" is unlikely to last 10 years, I assume that ordinary currency will become useless. In that event, you won't mind parting with some. Far from "collapsing", I will wager that, in 10 years, per capital global GDP will be higher than it is now. I'm happy to make this wager in any amount. If you agree, we can arrange logistical details later.
Kind regards;
Some techs seem overly optimistic and economic factors as well as global warming are not taken into effect (but cant be reliably predicted either)
In regards to the landfill mention, very promising technologies such as a Plasma Trash Converter (burns all sorts of matter and produces electricity, glass and hyrogen as a byproduct) or other promising waste to energy designs are in prototype or pre-production phases and look economically viable as well. March 07 PopSci issue has an interesting article on this.
Nice. I think that some of your timelines are a little off and some of the predictions may be a little pessimistic, but you have the basic idea.
The future will reveal itself to us in all its splendor.
Simple quantum computer, 4 Qubits [BT05]
D-wave has demonstrated a 16 Qubit quantum computer in 2007, not 2012.
Very interesting compliation, Peter.
One thing about the future - we're all going to be living there, it pays to think hard about the kind of a place we'd like it to be.
Brian Dunbar
LiftPort
Maybe a case of the "Jetsons". The year 2000 passed us by and we're still not flying in our cars. Along side all this technological development, gadgets, and over the top luxuries, the "organic", back-to-our-roots mentality is growing ever-stronger. In the end, we will still want to get together at the pub, get wasted and hook up with people (and wished we hadn't). Back to square one.
All this predictions but no one related to starvation around the world. Too sad.
Futures Studies/foresight are not only about predictions, but mainly about building the future we want.
However from a social scientist's point of view, such predictions are very useful to understand the state of mind of our contemporaries.
From a futurist's point of view, this a remarkable work of environment screening. Already your list has been commented at length on the WFSF e-list.
Please, continue to do so and I hope that in 2010 you will still be there, demonstrating your tenacity.
Kind regards
I'd like to see a prediction on when futurists can accurately predict the future. Wonderful, near meaningless, mental masturbation now proven horribly wrong.
The only predictions which were accurate for the first 6 years so far were the arrival of spacecraft already launched, projects already started in Dubai and China, and planed admissions to the EU. Very unimpressive.
I would like you to add the date that the prediction succeeded or failed to each predicted entry.
First of all I would like to say I do enjoy this list quite a lot and would like to thank you for compiling it. I do agree with another who said that it would be good to put when certain predictions succeeded/failed.
Now to those who like to bash Mr. Pesti for these predictions... this is a compilation! None of these are even his opinions, pay attention! And I wouldn't be surprised if the point is to see that most predictions end up failing, although a few do succeed. I also tend to look at lists (most older than these though) to see this process take place and to see those futurists "correct" themselves and the reasons they use for their mistakes. So stop yelling at him.
Good Job Peter
Well C. Sheiner, if you would have taken the time to consider the predictions that have failed already in the past 6 years, you would understand that the majority of the failed predictions come from Arthur C. Clarke's sci-fi style timeline. Basically just a bunch of predictions he pulled out of a hat, and not based on any actual documented trends.
thanks for including our roadmap in your timeline. we will do our best to fulfill on our plan, on time and on budget. we really think the space elevator will be built in 2031, and this month we hope to turn one of these pridictions 'green'.
take care. mjl
Red Color for 2007. LHC testrun will be delayed to 2008.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm...7D&
chanID=sa025
You've got a typo in 2007.
You wrote elevetor instaed of elevator.
I hope the pessimists aren't right and new technologies will actually help overcome some of our problems.
New energy sources like solar cells and other forms of renewable energy, so we don't need that much oil anymore would be a good start.
If we are able to form the future we want, it's better to do it with a positive outlook rather than contemplating theories of doom all day and night!
A great deal of effort, motivation and understanding has gone into this compilation. However all these predictions are contingent on development (if you want to call it that) proceeding at the assumed pace. However things always do not occur as expected. Case in point; Motorola's Iridium together with NAVSTAR GPS was expected to change how the World runs. It has'nt happened. Iridium is out and many countries are developing their own GPS. So much for predictions.
The compiled list is outstanding. May we have some predictions on the predictions as well.
45 nm semiconductors (predicted for 2010) already in mass production. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45_nm
"Large Hadron Collider (LHC)" particle accelerator complete (Geneva, Switzerland) [WP06]
It has started working already ...
Peter --
*Very* nice compilation. Congrats, and keep up the good work.
It would be interesting if, when you mark something green or red, you attached extra details. Specifically, for the 4-bit quantum computer, stating the date of implementation, details like it being a 16-bit computer, etc, would be cool. Knowing how far a prediction was exceeded will eventually be interesting. You will want to know the types of predictions that were early or late and by how much the predictions missed.
It would be fun to be able to vote on expected dates for each prediction.
Nice effort. Of course, I've long been one of those poking at the concept of prediction and how it seems to be rooted in specific human neural organs -- the prefrontal lobes, where we perform what Einstein called the "gedankenexperiment" or "thought experiments" about the immediante and distant futures.
In my science fiction novels, I take a freewheeling approach. But more rigorous discussions take place, regarding, for example Predictions Markets, which are gaining momentum.
My own extensive essay on the topic is at:
http://www.davidbrin.com/
predict...onsregistry.htm
See a wiki that has been set up by some meticulous fans, attempting to track my own near-future forecasts, ranking a success-failure rate, especially when it comes to my near-future novel EARTH (1989):
http://earthbydavidbrin.pbWORKS.COM/
Another, more general site, http://www.technovelgy.com/ tracks modern events/trends that were first mentioned in science fiction.
I hope some of this is helpful. We actually need systems that are FAR more systematic and detailed, in order to find out that most basic of things... who is right a lot!
With cordial regards,
David Brin
http://www.davidbrin.com
I think the page would be more informative if more information about when things happened were included. Say, yellow text for things that happened late and blue text for things that happened early, with a date indicating when it happened. One example that caught my eye is completion of the Burj Dubai in 2008. Delays lead to it being on track to be completed in 2009, but by all appearances, it will be completed. Just listing items in red doesn't indicate whether they were late or never happened at all.
Prediction, Kurzwiel, 2009
Re, VR (audio/video immersion) Xbox Project Natal, I/O device. Video Glasses numerous types available. Basic Audio Video immersion is now essentially done with glasses/earphones. Natal adds the I/O mechanism. Chalk one for Kurzwiel.
Re: Growth of the Neo Luddites.
Ummm... Can we say GOP? Teabaggers? Drag the country back to 1950? While not "Neo-Luddites" in name, they are certainly a beginning to the movement.
The predictions are interpreted to be in the form of "By the indicated date the prediction will have come true". Green indicates a successful prediction and red (with line) indicates failure of the prediction.
"I think the page would be more informative if more information about when things happened were included. Say, yellow text for things that happened late and blue text for things that happened early, with a date indicating when it happened." -Anonymous
Myself and others have been asking for this change for years. Red - the prediction failed to happen by the predicted date and has still not happened; Yellow (with date)- the prediction happened but was late; Blue (with date) - the prediction occurred early and; Green - the prediction was successful and happened on time.
[This would be very easy to implement if you skipped the date information, as it only requires a colour selection].
Some of the predictions have multiple parts. These colours should be applied separately to each part of the prediction.
Commenting by HaloScan