Detailed Roadmap of the 21st Century
compiled by Peter Pesti

   "We have two classes of forecasters: those who don't know – and those who don't know they don't know." - John Kenneth Galbraith



(12/30/2006) This is the initial release of the "Detailed Roadmap of the 21st Century" compilation, a year by year bullet point list of notable advances expected to happen in the 21st century, from 2006 onwards. The motivation for creating such a compilation is to allow us to evaluate predictions in context of other predictions; evaluate their credibility in view of the big picture; and finally, to enable us to better plan and prepare for the coming years. Since the goal is to provide an overview of predictions, the list contains no original research or predictions: all listed advances are marked with their sources. When time ranges are given in the original sources, the most pessimistic (ie. latest) predictions are used. While the compilation aims to be comprehensive, it does not aim to be coherent: it is up to the reader to resolve conflicting predictions by trusting one (or none) of the sources.

For ground truth reference, listed advances include planned phases of large science and construction projects (with plans extending mostly until 2015), some regular political and sporting events (until 2025), and the age of Britney Spears. Projections on the state of the world (until 2050) are from Goldman Sachs ([G-S03]), PricewaterhouseCoopers ([PwC06]), the United Nations ([UN04]) and the US intelligence community ([NIC04]). Technology development projections are from DoD roadmaps ([Alpha03], [JRP05], [UAS05]), a nanotech expert survey ([ICTAF05]), a semiconductor roadmap ([ITRS06]), and futurist opinions (Kurzweil, Klatz, Grossman, deGrey). An extensive compilation from British Telecom's futurologists ([BT05]) is also included, although predictions on that list have no source indications and the authors compiling the list "do not necessarily approve or condone what we are predicting will happen".

The compilation will be extended, and these marks will be updated as we move deeper into the century. No predictions will be taken off the list.

Enjoy, and please share your thoughts:
Archived comments (2007-09)
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(01/03/2007) Update: not much surprise here, the EU enlargement proceeds as planned. Two predictions turn green.
(01/11/2007) Thanks for the comments and your concerns about sustainability. Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth is here, and the movie trailer is here. Karsten Staack made the following video using his selection of the predictions on this page:


(01/31/2007) Two new sources added from March 2006: roadmaps by Brian Wang ([Wang06]) and Microsoft Research ([MSR06], yet unmerged).
(03/10/2007) Two new sources added: Arthur C. Clarke's sci-fi style timeline from 1999 ([Clarke99]), and projections from a tech project ([LiftPort06]).
(06/28/2007) Added economic potential projection data from Goldman Sachs' N-11/BRICs-revisited paper ([G-S05]).
(07/01/2007) Added UK Ministry of Defence's global strategic trends analysis until 2036 ([MoD07]).
(01/22/2010) Michael Anissimov and Ray Kurzweil on the difficulties caused by changes in the interpretation of predictions due to altered framing
(01/13/2011) Numerous predictions from [BT05] for 2010 could be argued to have been successful; instead, they've been marked as failed for being unhelpfully vague.





Sources (ordered by date):
[NASA-O97]NASA Origins '97, July 1997
[Clarke99]Arthur C. Clarke: "Predictions for the 21st Century", March/June 1999
[Kurzweil99]Ray Kurzweil: "The Age of Spiritual Machines; Timeline", 1999
[Kurzweil99]Ray Kurzweil: "The Age of Spiritual Machines; Chapter Six: Building New Brains", 1999
[Kurzweil99c]Ray Kurzweil: "The Coming Merging of Mind and Machine", September 1999
[Klatz00]Ronald Klatz, Anti-Aging Medical News, Fall 2000, pp. 8-12.
[Kurzweil00]Ray Kurzweil: "The Human Machine Merger: Why We Will Spend Most of Our Time in Virtual Reality in the Twenty-first Century", July 2000
[Kurzweil01]Ray Kurzweil: "The Law of Accelerating Returns", March 2001
[Grossman01]Terry Grossman: "The Transhuman Singularity", March 2001
[NSF02]World Technology Evaluation Center/NSF/DOC (eds. Mihail C. Roco and William Sims Bainbridge): "Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science", June 2002
[Kurzweil03]Ray Kurzweil: "The Human Machine Merger: Are We Headed for the Matrix?", March 2003
[Alpha03]U.S. Joint Forces Command: "Unmanned Effects: Taking the Human out of the Loop", July 2003
[Council03]The President's Council on Bioethics: "Beyond Therapy: Biotechnology and the Pursuit of Happiness", October 2003
[G-S03]Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 99. (Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman): "Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050", October 2003
[NIC04]"Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project", December 2004
[NSF05]World Technology Evaluation Center/NSF (eds. Mihail C. Roco and William Sims Bainbridge): "Managing Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Innovations: Converging Technologies In Society", 2005
[JRP05]U.S. Department of Defense: "Joint Robotics Program Master Plan FY2005", 2005
[UN04]"UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision", medium estimate, February 2005 (additional link)
[deGrey05]"Hang in There: The 25-Year Wait for Immortality", LiveScience interview with Aubrey de Grey, April 2005
[UAS05]Office of the Secretary of Defense: "Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030", August 2005
[BT05]Ian Neild and Ian Pearson: "2005 BT Technology Timeline", August 2005
[G-S05]Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 134. (Jim O'Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman and Anna Stupnytska): "How Solid are the BRICs?", December 2005
[ICTAF05]Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF Tel Aviv; Aharon Hauptman and Yair Sharan): "Envisioned Developments in Nanobiotechnology (December 2005 Expert Survey's Summary of Results)", February 2006
[PwC06]PricewaterhouseCoopers (John Hawksworth): "The World in 2050: How big will the major emerging market economies get and how can the OECD compete?", March 2006
[Wang06]Brian Wang: "Predictions for a Technological Future", March 2006
[MSR06]Microsoft Research: "Towards 2020 Science", March 2006
[Yangshan06]Anatoly Hochstein: "Demand for Port Yangshan" (National Ports and Waterways Institute), April 2006
[Lehao06]The Register: "China: moon landing planned for 2024", June 2006
[Kurzweil06]Ray Kurzweil: "Why We Can Be Confident of Turing Test Capability Within a Quarter Century", July 2006
[ITRS06]"International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, 2006 Update", 2006
[LiftPort06]"Road Map to the LiftPort Space Elevator, v1.0.1", October 2006
[TEN06]The Emirates Network (TEN) Real Estate: The Palm Islands, December 2006
[Emporis06]Emporis, December 2006
[WP06]Wikipedia, December 2006
[M4-06]Metro DBR, December 2006
[NART06]Nemzeti Autopalya Zrt., December 2006
[MoD07]UK Ministry of Defence DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre): "The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme, Third Edition: 2007-2036", January 2007
[IPCC07]Commission of the European Communities: "Renewable Energy Road Map / Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future", January 2007
[NaFr07]Karen F. Schmidt (Woodrow Wilson Internation Center for Scholars): "NanoFrontiers: Visions for the Future of Nanotechnology", March 2007
[IPCC07]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II: "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Summary for Policymakers)", April 2007
[IEER07]Nuclear Policy Research Institute & Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Arjun Makhijani): "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy (Executive Summary)", July 2007
[Battelle07]Battelle Memorial Institute and Foresight Nanotech Institute: "Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems", December 2007
[CRN07]Center for Responsible Nanotechnology: "CRN Task Force Scenario Project", December 2007
[NNI07]Nanoscale Science, Engineering, and Technology (NSET) Subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Technology: "The National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), 2007 Strategic Plan", December 2007
[CMI08]Chartered Management Institute: "Britain in business: the world of work in 2018", March 2008


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